Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.051380 0.058797 0.066972 0.076661 0.087844 0.100363 0.115464
2024-12-15 0.040190 0.050308 0.062554 0.078518 0.098852 0.123987 0.157565
2024-12-22 0.033116 0.044035 0.058117 0.077707 0.104415 0.139781 0.190538
2024-12-29 0.029474 0.041175 0.057069 0.080398 0.114048 0.161244 0.233197
2025-01-05 0.025095 0.036526 0.052739 0.077634 0.115288 0.170740 0.259749
2025-01-12 0.022047 0.033279 0.049838 0.076307 0.118090 0.182393 0.290557
2025-01-19 0.019150 0.029855 0.046186 0.073246 0.117625 0.188684 0.313379
2025-01-26 0.018052 0.029042 0.046376 0.076128 0.126793 0.211153 0.365541
2025-02-02 0.017079 0.028292 0.046538 0.078904 0.136006 0.234659 0.422542
2025-02-09 0.016208 0.027597 0.046682 0.081603 0.145314 0.259316 0.484851
2025-02-16 0.014898 0.026004 0.045113 0.081083 0.148742 0.273757 0.529874
2025-02-23 0.013901 0.024850 0.044176 0.081559 0.153988 0.292056 0.584721
2025-03-02 0.012856 0.023530 0.042853 0.081257 0.157890 0.308599 0.639179
2025-03-09 0.012241 0.022946 0.042827 0.083445 0.166965 0.336539 0.721799
2025-03-16 0.011311 0.021665 0.041346 0.082576 0.169714 0.351872 0.779304
2025-03-23 0.010904 0.021355 0.041702 0.085446 0.180560 0.385515 0.882915
2025-03-30 0.009910 0.019779 0.039390 0.082498 0.178544 0.390988 0.921796
2025-04-06 0.009173 0.018655 0.037881 0.081083 0.179706 0.403612 0.979611
2025-04-13 0.008333 0.017239 0.035635 0.077819 0.176291 0.405298 1.010533
2025-04-20 0.008135 0.017161 0.036205 0.080892 0.187913 0.443775 1.141344
2025-04-27 0.007934 0.017058 0.036703 0.083852 0.199622 0.483977 1.283253
2025-05-04 0.007735 0.016936 0.037148 0.086731 0.211481 0.526107 1.437393
2025-05-11 0.007291 0.016226 0.036204 0.086176 0.214670 0.546495 1.533810